Vanguard’s Bogle: Prepare for Stocks, Bonds to Miss Historical Returns

Let me begin by quoting Bogle, age 87, of Vanguard:

“‘accept the returns offered by the market, and don’t take risks to get higher returns, whether you’re talking about bonds or stock.”

No one has a monopoly on the truth and the future is unknowable. That includes Mr. Bogle. However, his experience and over 3 trillion reasons (assets under management) should not be ignored.

Having said that, I would like to hear more from him on why we should expect and accept lower returns. Slowing population growth? Is he talking about returns only in the United States suggesting no one wins all the time? Have corporations reached peak productivity similar to reaching the limits of Intel’s Moore’s law (no relation)?

This leads me to a connection suggested by Schumpeter: economic growth arises from productivity enhancing technological progress. Perhaps Bogle doesn’t see Facebook, snapchat, Whatsapp, etc. as productivity enhancing.

-Dr. Moore

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